How Nepal’s Weather Forecast Started To Be Able To Be Adjusted Like That Last Thursday, the Weather Forecasting Division under the Department of Water and Meteorology issued a notice that there is a possibility of heavy rainfall in various places of the country including the capital. The department had predicted that the flow of rivers across the country would increase for four days due to the impact of the low-pressure system developed in the Bay of Bengal.
“On Ashoj 11th, 12th and 13th, the flow of most of the rivers in the country is forecast to be around the alert level and the water level in Narayani River Devghat, Kankai River Mainachuli, Kamala River Velsot, Bagmati Padheradobhan, East Rapti Rajaiya, West Rapti Kusum, Babai Chepang River and its tributaries. As it is forecast that the danger level will remain around and in some places, it will cross the danger level, it is requested to be extremely vigilant in the river coastal areas,” the department said in the notification.
The government agency is now being criticized on social media for ignoring the department’s forecast. After all, how does the department make such accurate weather forecasts? Compared to previous years, how are the estimates of the department in recent years? Today we are discussing the same topic:
Do you know, that millions of rupees are spent on weather forecasting? The main function of the Weather Forecasting Division is to provide weather-related information to the civil and aviation sectors.
How is the weather forecast?
Until some time ago, there was a comment that there was no weather forecast in Nepal. However, for the last few years, the forecasts made by meteorologists have been largely consistent. “Weather forecast is not exactly like a machine measuring the temperature,” says Barun Paudel, a senior meteorologist of the Water and Weather Forecasting Division. It has multiparameters. Those aspects are estimated by analysis.”
These aspects are analyzed and information is given as to what the weather is going to be immediately and what the weather will be later.
That is to say, when the same data is placed in the modelling forecast, the information about the weather for 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 and 72 hours can be seen there. Such information can be obtained from the website of the Department of Water and Meteorology by clicking here.
How is Nepal in the field of weather forecasting?
It has been more than 15 years since meteorologist Paudel came to the department. According to him, in the early days, there was not enough technology in the office. Now a new satellite picture arrives every 10 minutes. The weather can be identified in it at all times. However, in the beginning, there was no facility to see the weather like this.
It is his experience that after the availability of technologies such as S-band radar, radiosondes, upper air data, numerical weather prediction, weather cameras, weather stations and satellites, weather forecasting has been improved. In addition to that, the website used in this work is advanced and interactive, so accurate weather forecasting has been possible.
“There has also been a difference in the way of working,” he says. The website used in it is based on open source, which can be accessed by anyone. This has made it easier.”
Although the Sari Division has requested to be vigilant with precision, there is a lack of coordination and activity among other government agencies. As a result, several passengers lost their lives at the same place due to a landslide in the Jhaple River in Dhading. It has been analyzed that if the traffic had stopped for a few days from Friday after following the information of the weather forecast, the loss of life would have been avoided.
What kind of technologies are used in weather infrastructure?
S-Band Radar
The division has kept S-band radar at three places namely Surkhet, Palpa and Udaipur. These are fisked radars. From these radars, subjects such as where the cloud is located, what kind of cloud it is, where the cloud is going, and what kind of cloud it is being studied.
These radars are useful for gathering data on weather activity in the lower atmosphere. From this, the department can make real-time observations about the weather.
Radiosondes
It is also known as ‘Weather Balloon’. Sensors are installed in the balloon to measure the temperature, water vapour, pressure, etc. of the atmosphere. From this, the department collects data to prepare weather-related reports.
At present, the division flies this balloon regularly at 5:45 in the morning to assess the upper air (Upper Air). From that, the weather conditions in the atmosphere can be known. Real-time data is obtained from it.
That balloon goes up to 30 km and is destroyed. This balloon, which is flown by the department to forecast the weather, is very expensive. It costs about 25,000 to 30,000 rupees per day to fly a balloon. It has been three years since he started flying balloons daily.
Although this technology is expensive, two balloons are flown daily in developed countries to obtain accurate weather data. According to Paudelak, some countries send ships instead of balloons. “They send a special ship abroad,” he adds, “The ship carries a weather sensor. which is linked to the computer. It comes back after reaching the specified height. That is expensive. In developed countries, more investments are allocated for this.
Numerical Weather Prediction (Numerical Weather Prediction-NWP)
NWP is one of the various methods of weather forecasting. The division has used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to make a three-day weather forecast based on that. For this, data on wind, water cloud conditions etc. is required.
Weather Camera
These types of cameras are placed in sensitive and difficult places. These cameras are running both day and night. At night, it takes infrared video and pictures.
The division has such weather camera stations in more than 35 other areas along with airports in remote locations. His data comes directly to the department’s database. With this type of camera, the division can directly study the weather of that place even if it is in Kathmandu.
Weather Station
To get information about the weather of different places, there is a need to measure locally. For this, weather stations have been built in many places. The division has two types of stations, automatic and manual. Based on the standards of the World Metrological Organization (WMO), the division has made a manual station. In this type of station, everything is operated by humans.
Satellite
Nepal does not have its own satellite for weather forecasting. But the role of satellite is very important in this work. This is why the Japanese government is helping Nepal with weather forecasting through its satellite called Himawari.
This satellite is located in the sky of Japan. But from that, the data of the visible part of Nepal is sent to the department. Based on that data, the department works on weather forecasting. It is a dedicated satellite received with support.
Senior meteorologist Paudel feels that technology, manpower and many other things have improved in this office. However, he believes that to meet the various weather forecasts, emphasis should be placed on the development of technology and manpower.
Pragya Manandhar, in charge of the Division’s Forecasting Division, says that there is not enough manpower to use these technologies in Nepal. “A few employees have to run the office round the clock. The VVIPs/VIPs should make a report immediately,” she laments, “If the estimate is not met, the abuse will stop.”
